Hope and danger in the 2010 elections

Zaw Min Aung, 29 December 2009, Mizzima News.

Burma’s generals, who drew up the 2008 constitution based on the 104 basic principles set in 1993, are now fifteen years older. Many of the ageing generals are no longer on active duty, with most well into their eighties.

Time and circumstances do not favor them like in 1993. Although cognizant of the wanting constitution, they are equally in no mood to admit the flaws. Though feeling the enormous dissatisfaction among the people, they remain determined to see through the regime’s roadmap and gear up for next year’s planned election. Meanwhile, younger officers are careful to hide their dissent, wary of the feelings of the obstinate elder generation.

Yet, one way or another the older generals must eventually let the younger generation of officers run the country. Previous enthusiasm and hope amidst younger generations is now giving way to fear and knowledge that the elders may again change the rules of the game.

Therefore, it is not only democratic forces that wish to revise the constitution, elements within the armed forces also hope for change. For instance, they do not want to see the future Army Chief of Staff above the Prime Minister and they do not want the Army Chief of Staff to have the discretionary power to scrap the constitution.

The proposed post-election parliament is to consist of 25 percent appointed representatives by the armed forces. The goals of such a stipulation clearly include: a desire for continuity in government, full immunity from prosecution for past military transgressions, securing the wealth of officers, and preventing electoral reform and the ascension to power of the democratic opposition.

These criteria are seemingly non-negotiable as, for instance, any deviation from an immunity clause would in all likelihood impel the Army to launch yet another coup.

Nevertheless, knowing that the armed forces themselves are not entirely behind the 2008 constitution, opposition elements should soften their ridiculing of the existing document. The door is open to go forward, which might or might not guarantee the continued misuse of power by the present regime, implying that the opposition should toe the line regarding this new challenge with the hope of establishing a functioning state.

There are encouraging signs that General Than Shwe will accept the request of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for a face-to-face meeting. No one expects all outstanding issues to be settled, but something could come out of it providing alternatives to the present means of governance. Having endured 50 years of military dictatorship, an elected constitutional government may not be a bad thing if it moves the country forward. Voices can be raised in dissatisfaction and much needed development projects could be implemented.

On the other hand, an election may simply lead to a proxy government headed by one of the SPDC’s present corrupt ministers.

Will the outcome of the 2010 elections solve all the country’s problems? No. But, it might be able to prevent the further grip on power and economic elitism held by Daw Kyaing Kyaing and Co. and any reign of terror conducted by the grandson of the present dictator. And that, would at least be a start toward a democratic Burma.