Than Shwe and the Waiting Game

Credit: AUNG ZAW, The Irrawaddy News Magazine, January 27, 2010.

It's often said that Burmese junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe is good at managing time. In 2008, he surprised everyone by calling for a referendum in May and announcing a general election would be held in 2010.

He then fell quiet, allowing people to speculate about an election date and the promulgation of an electoral law. Than Shwe is indeed a time-management genius.

This week it was reported that Home Affairs Minister Maj-Gen Maung Oo had told local officials in Kyaukpadaung Township that the detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be released in November this year.

Can this be interpreted as a message to the world that Suu Kyi will be released only after the election—which can be expected in October, according to a recent unconfirmed report published in the influential Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun? Than Shwe appears to be testing the water again to manage his time.

Maung Oo, it will be recalled, played a role at the end of Suu Kyi's trial last May, theatrically entering the courtroom to read a prepared statement from Than Shwe commuting Suu Kyi's sentence from three years' hard labor to 18 months under house arrest. That sentence expires this November. Did any political pundits predict Than Shwe's letter beforehand? I recall no one.

It certainly appears that Than Shwe doesn't want Suu Kyi to be released before the election. If she were to be freed even just one week before the election she and her National League for Democracy (NLD) could scoop up votes and hijack the regime's seven-step road map.

Than Shwe surely won't risk another 1990. Without Suu Kyi on the scene he is confident of victory even before the election is held.

His confidence is bolstered by the fact that the international community, the US, EU, UN and regional governments, while calling for a free and fair election, have stopped short of demanding a review of the constitution.

However, by calling for an inclusive and credible election, the US and UN have made clear they want detained Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners to be included in the electoral process.

Indonesia Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa recently added his voice to calls for an inclusive election by saying he wants to see Suu Kyi given the possibility and opportunity to interact with her party colleagues on deciding how they will approach the election.

This week, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, P. J. Crowley, told reporters at a daily news briefing: “We have long demanded the release of Aung San Suu Kyi. We think that should still be done and as quickly as possible. I think the idea that her release will conveniently come after the election is unfortunate.”

Officials in the Obama administration, busy with a “direct engagement” policy with Burma, are showing signs of frustration after waiting in vain for any sign of meaningful enthusiasm on the part of the regime.

The Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Kurt Campbell, who led a US delegation on a visit to Burma in November, told senators at a congressional briefing last week: “We are attempting to take that first step...but I do want to underscore that one can't dance on the dance floor alone.”

Campbell also said the administration’s formal review of US policy towards Burma reaffirmed its fundamental goals: a democratic government that respects the rights of its people and is at peace with its neighbors.

He elaborated further: “A policy of pragmatic engagement with the Burmese authorities holds the best hope for advancing our goals. Under this approach, US sanctions will remain in place until Burmese authorities demonstrate that they are prepared to make meaningful progress on US core concerns.”

Campbell's visit to Burma was “educational” in nature, encompassing meetings with the Burmese prime minister, Suu Kyi and ethnic leaders.

The US delegation was reportedly highly impressed with the meetings with Suu Kyi at Rangoon's Inya Lake Hotel and with NLD leaders at the party headquarters. I have also learned that the discussions with Suu Kyi and party leaders were deep-reaching and covered a wide range of issues.

No time line emerged from the US delegation's talks with regime officials, however. Than Shwe is keeping that to himself—probably because he doesn't have one.