Larry Jagan, Bangkok Post, 17/04/2010.Every Asean summit for the last decade has been dominated by the Burma issue. Although discussions are usually on the sidelines and in confidential sessions, this year's meeting in Hanoi was no different. The only exception was that in the chairman's public statement at the end of the proceedings, Burma seemed to have got away unscathed. But Burma's hopes to take the Asean chair next year were completely dashed.
The reality is that the junta was barraged behind the scenes by almost all the Southeast Asian leaders, except the hosts Vietnam - who are cozying up to the regime in the hope of wooing them away from their Chinese allies. But the most lasting impression of the meeting is that Asean countries are becoming bored with Burma's antics, lack of transparency and failure to confide in their regional supporters.
Thailand's Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya was clearly irritated, and dismissively brushed aside my question: have you spoken to the Burmese about the election? ''I talk to them all the time,'' he said and quickly disappeared down the stairs.
Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan was also clearly frustrated by the Burmese, and perhaps even more so by journalists' questions on the issue. ''On the Myanmar issue, we just have to have patience,'' Mr Surin finally told me.
Asean's leaders have good reason to be bored with Burma _ they are completely in the dark about the future as is everyone else. ''All the Myanmar side told us is that there will be elections this year, the five laws controlling the process have been published, and the political parties are now registering,'' said Mr Surin.
For more than a year now this is the most the regime has managed to divulge to their regional allies. No wonder the other Asean leaders are getting increasingly frustrated by the regime's intransigence. But Asean cannot escape from the reality _ the elections in Burma later this year are not only a test for the regime, but for the credibility of the organisation as a whole. This is something the Thai foreign minister conceded.
''The Myanmar issue still presents a problem when we want to take Asean forward to negotiate and deal with other groupings and countries,'' Mr Kasit told Thai journalists on the sidelines of the meeting in Hanoi. ''It presents a major limitation for us.''
The former UN special envoy to Burma was even clearer: ''It will be very embarrassing for Asean if the elections go ahead as the generals plan and Aung San Suu Kyi does not play a role,'' Razali Ismail said recently.
Asian leaders and diplomats are still trying to put a brave face on it. ''We are doing what we can, and Indonesia for one, takes the issue of Myanmar very seriously,'' Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said at the summit.
''But we think quiet diplomacy works much better,'' he added. ''And in private we can be more frank and forceful, and we are, without them appearing to be under pressure.''
In the past the regime complained about Thailand's ''megaphone diplomacy'', when former Thai foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai tried to bring Burma out of its isolation and encourage political change during the Khin Nyunt era. Since the military intelligence chief and prime minister was toppled in October 2004, the military junta has been extremely loath to openly discuss political developments even with its Asian allies.
But several countries in Asean _ especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand _ are intent on pressing the regime, at least privately, to make sure the elections do not embarrass the regional grouping, which has continually defended the junta publicly.
''We continue to remind the Myanmar government of their promises to hold elections which are internationally acceptable,'' said Mr Natalegawa.
In the key meetings, Asean leaders urged the Burmese junta to keep to its road map, Mr Surin said at the end of the summit. ''We hope these elctions will provide a mechanism for true na tional reconciliation,'' he said ''And we are ready to offer assistance, help and support.''
The Asean leaders also urged Burma to engage Asean and the United Nations in the lead-up to the elections. One thorny issue raised was the possibility of election monitors or observers being allowed in to oversee the polls _ an idea the junta has so far shunned.
While the Asean leaders understand that Burma's elections will also be a test of the regional grouping's credibilty, they are also well aware that they have very little influence on the regime. ''The coming months will be critical months for Myanmar,'' Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo told journalists at the summit.
''But in the end what happens in Myanmar is for the Myanmar people to decide. We are outsiders... we hope they will make progress quickly. We are not in a position to punish Myanmar,'' he added. ''If China and India remain engaged with Myanmar, then we have to.''
But the regionl group did send a strong message to supremo Senior General Than Shwe during the summit, when it dismmissed Burma's insistent appeal to be allowed to take the Asean chair next year _ to help celebrate the ''birth of the new Burmese civilian government'' after the elections this year. Burma opted not to take its place as chairman four years ago amid strong international pressure.
Instead Indonesia, Cambodia and Brunei were confirmed as the next three. Only then would Burma be considered, a senior Asean diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
''This is the only way we could show our displeasure. And it is by no means certain that they will automatically get the chairmanship for 2014,'' he said.
So while there are signs that the regional leaders may be getting tired of the regime's lack of transparency and unwillingness to cooperate, in the end they will be forced to endorse the elections no matter what happens.
As Dr Surin said, ''If the election is not objectionable, it will be acceptable [to Asean].''
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