Strategic Report Suggests Long-range US-Burma Policy

By LALIT K. JHA, Irrawaddy News, March 30, 2010.

WASHINGTON—An Asia Society report by an independent panel of experts on Wednesday recommends that the Obama administration approach policy adjustments with careful consideration to encourage reform and democratic governance in Burma.

The report, titled “Current Realities and Future Possibilities in Burma/Myanmar: Options For US Policy,” is the first comprehensive critical analysis of the new Burma policy of the Obama administration that was unveiled by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton late last year.

Under the policy, the administration has had two rounds of discussion with the Burmese military junta, while simultaneously maintaining its economic sanctions against it. Independent experts believe that the new policy has not yielded any results as the junta is going ahead with its plans for elections, which are widely regarded as rigged against the opposition. Officials of the administration argue that such things take time, and they should continue on the present course.

The 68-page report was co-chaired by former Gen Wesley Clark and Henrietta Fore, former administrator of the US Agency for International Development.

According to the task force, through its programs and support for Burmese people, the US can demonstrate that it is steady but flexible and quick to react to any potential overtures from the Burmese government.

“Specifically, during this period of transition, the United States should encourage the process of political development toward democratic norms; press the military regime to improve governance; and assist the country’s non-Burman nationalities in pursuing an equitable voice in national governance,” the report said.

The report recommended that the Obama Administration should position itself to engage not only with Burma’s military leaders, but also with a wide range of groups inside Burma. The National League for Democracy (NLD) should continue to be a focal point of US policy support, and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, will remain an important figure for achieving the dialogue necessary to bring about national reconciliation of the military, democracy groups and minority nationalities. The US should also place greater emphasis on other democratic forces, it said.

It recommended appointing a special representative and policy coordinator for Burma as called for by the Tom Lantos Block Burmese Jade Act of 2008.

Noting that the US policy toward Burma should emphasize coordination and collaboration with other concerned governments and international institutions, particularly Burma’s Asian neighbors, the Task Force recommended that the America sanctions on trade and investment with Burma should not be removed until the government releasedolitical prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and allowed full participation in the political process.

The report supported the decision to maintain sanctions in the absence of significant, meaningful change in the composition and policies of the Burmese government, particularly with regard to its tolerance of political opposition.

In pursuing pragmatic engagement with Burma, the United States must continue to develop, and even ramp up, means of reaching the Burmese population directly through assistance programs, said the report.

It recommended that any expansion of humanitarian aid programs inside Burma should not be accomplished at the expense of existing cross-border assistance programs, which remain essential. It also recommended that expansion of educational exchange under the Fulbright and Humphrey Scholar programs and cultural outreach activities should be expanded.

“As for the elections, the United States should avoid direct participation in election monitoring, as this could be seen as conferring legitimacy on a seriously flawed election process,” it said, adding that the US, however, should facilitate the provision of educational materials on election and parliamentary processes to groups in Burma and on the Thai border that are conducting voter workshops and seminars, with a particular emphasis on state/division-level elections, which may become important to ethnic minorities.

US policy should shift to a second stage if Burmese leaders begin to relax political restrictions, institute economic reforms and advance human rights, it said. During this stage, measures designed to assist the process of developing more democratic institutions should be stressed, both inside and outside government, and to encourage government capacity building.

“If there is no movement on these fronts, there will be little room for improving US relations with Burma, and, in fact, pressure in the United States for tightening sanctions and other punitive measures likely will follow,” it said.

During this stage, the US should explore the feasibility of forming a support group with Australia, Burma, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia and Japan, perhaps under the auspices of the United Nations, to provide a mechanism for organizing international coordination and assistance for Burma’s transition, both politically and economically.

The report says if the elections in Burma take place in 2010 as scheduled and succeed in replacing the current military government—the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)—with a quasi-civilian government, the US must be positioned to interact with the elected politicians and civil servants in the new ministries and other government structures. This interaction also could include, for example, a relaxation of the US visa ban on government officials to allow selected invitees to visit the US.

“The United States should prepare to implement measures that will ease the way toward improved economic relations and the eventual removal of trade and investment sanctions,” the report recommended.

“A first measure is the provision of expert advice. Accordingly, the United States should gradually release current injunctions on and partner with institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank to provide Burma with advice on reform,” it said, adding that the second measure includes providing Burma with assistance in economic institution building.

The third stage would commence when there is clear evidence of change that can be further developed and supported—for example, when the civilian population believes that the new government is serving its interests, when it is safe to run for office and engage openly in political activity, and when a new generation of socially responsible political and military leaders has emerged.

A second round of parliamentary elections, planned for 2015, would provide a more reliable measure of political progress in Burma than the first round in 2010, and could be a key indicator of such change. the report said. If there is definitive progress in this area, engagement should expand and sanctions should begin to diminish.

“The United States should create aid programs designed to improve civil service capacity and the effectiveness of government welfare and education. The United States should begin to focus on legal reform to address civil rights, economic law, and corruption,” it said.

Further, the United States should encourage the creation of a flexible mechanism that will allow some sanctions to be lifted, while maintaining others, and holding on to the capacity to impose new, tightly targeted financial sanctions should circumstances deteriorate.

The report also said the US should position itself to promote security sector reform in Burma. In addition to advancing reforms in the judiciary and oversight of the country’s military and police, the US should prepare to expand bilateral relations with Burma’s security forces and restore some form of security assistance, particularly police training assistance, if concrete developments in human rights and a clear intention to professionalize Burmese security forces take place.

Noting that there are no easy solutions and the path forward will not be smooth, the report said that the US must ensure that its policies do not inadvertently support or encourage authoritarian and/or corrupt elements in Burmese society.

“At the same time, if the United States sets the bar too high at the outset, it will deny itself an effective role in helping to move Burma away from authoritarian rule and into the world community,” the report said.